Why China Could Never Replace America at the World's #1 Spot
Jiayuguan, Gansu Province, China, August 27, 2013
Salaroche


Some people say the 21st Century could be China’s century and there are signs that such assumption may turn out to be true, particularly now that China is poised to soon become the #1 economy in the world. In the view of some others, however, the United States remains the most influential of all existing nations and will continue to be so for a long time to come.

But America’s predominance, as waning as it may be, is not solely based on its economic performance across time. There are other significant elements supporting America’s dominant position, and one can only wonder whether China is in possession of those other necessary elements for unseating America as the hegemon of the 21st century.

It is widely accepted that the 20th century was America’s century and there is plenty of evidence to support that view, particularly when looking at the past 60 years or so. But, what is it that makes a country become the number one country in the world? How does any modern nation climb up all the way to that position? There are a few factors that need to be contemplated when answering those questions. In the American case, some historical circumstances provided the springboard for its ascendance to world supremacy.

At the beginning of the last century America was already an industrial superpower, but it wasn’t yet at the pinnacle of its general development. But then the Europeans, America’s only industrial rivals at the time, raised havoc across their continent in two consecutive wars that basically destroyed their industrial capabilities except for some of those for military purposes. As a result, America found itself in May of 1945 as the supreme economic engine of the western world. Then, just a few months later, Japan’s defeat only came to corroborate America’s undisputable supremacy over the free world at the time.

Thus, the end of the Second World War saw a victorious benevolent America presiding over the largest portion of the western world and over a cluster of East Asian nations who were basically at the mercy of the victor’s generosity, equally in terms of capital, national defense, and ideas.

Overall, there were four clearly unbeatable American components propelling the world forward under American leadership during the 20th century: America’s economy, America’s military capabilities, America’s technological innovations and America's popular culture. Those were then and remain today the four basic elements that carried America as the world’s dominant country across the 20th century and into the 21st.

Would America have been as influential over the past few decades had it lacked any of those four basic elements? Probably not. First, without its economic might America wouldn’t have been able to rebuild Europe and Japan and wouldn’t have been able to prop up South Korea and Taiwan among others. It wouldn’t have been able to outspend the Soviet Union in defense matters either.

In addition, it wouldn’t have been able to found and sponsor financial institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank, which, as a side effect, have served as vehicles to disseminate American cultural values. Such benevolent stance on behalf of the free world garnered plenty of good will towards America, which translated into openness from the rest of the world to American input of many kinds.

Second, without its military might America wouldn’t have been able to found and be the backbone of NATO and wouldn’t have been able to protect Japan and the rest of East Asia from the two communist behemoths to the north. Once again, this benevolent American stance only opened most countries commercial, political and social doors wide open to American industrial, ideological, and cultural goods.

Third, without its technological advancements America wouldn’t have been able to build the strongest industrial capacity of the 20th century and wouldn’t have been able to accomplish any of the two points outlined above. On top of this, the continuing impact that the latest American developments have had on the world’s IT field now makes it the country that everybody looks up to in expectation for the latest gadget or app.

Finally, because of the popularity of its high ideals, its music, its movies, its TV shows, its gadgets for entertainment, its fast food, etc., America easily became the cultural darling in the eyes of most other nations, thereby bringing the youth of the world to its side. America’s soft power is today perhaps as much as ever before one of the most important components in the structure supporting America as the most salient country in the world.

The four points mentioned above are interrelated and the focal center that unites them is the continuing American ingenuity springing from its freedom of thought and its constructive individualism, which translates into an incessant desire to try new things, hence its spearheading position in the economic, military, technological and cultural fields (its excesses and failures notwithstanding)

So, with the previous bird-view assessment of the reasons that America became the No. 1 country in the world in mind, can we say that China has all the equivalent elements to unseat America as the most influential nation of the 21st century? Before answering that question let’s take a similar overview of China’s present situation and characteristics.

To begin with, the historical moment in which China is emerging as a world power is in no way similar to that which propelled the US to a dominant position at the end of World War Two. The world in general is not in its best possible overall shape today, but it isn’t in the deplorable condition in which Europe was in 1945 either. In other words, the world is not today in need of any financial and military savior such as the US was called to be at crucial moments during the first three quarters of the 20th century.

On top of this, because of the absence of any imminent threat such as the Soviet Union was perceived to be by the western world up to 1989 and because of China’s secretive authoritarian government, not even the Pacific Rim neighborhood would be willing to follow China’s lead in mimicking its political system or adopting its political ideals.

The previous scenario alone sets a difficult stage for China to rise to world dominance in a way similar to that of the US. But let’s not come to definitive conclusions yet and let’s see whether China meets the criteria for world hegemony as explained in the four points outlined above.

First, China’s economic might can only grow stronger in the foreseeable future, making this first point the most comparable to any of America’s four basic elements propelling it to world dominance. China’s present annual rate of economic growth of 7% is lower than the 10% rate it has enjoyed over the past few years, but it’s still considerably above that of the US or any other industrialized nations. In terms of economics, therefore, China appears to have what it takes to unseat America at the helm of world influence.

Second, China’s military might is growing and it is projected to grow stronger in the future, particularly its Navy, but it is still far behind the US in every visible way. Barring any use of nuclear weapons, the US Air Force and Navy could easily defeat China’s with only relatively minor damage inflicted on US forces. Regarding ground troops, on the other hand, China holds an overwhelming advantage over the US (5 to 1 ratio in some calculations) but that advantage would be seriously minimized with the use of sea to ground, air to ground and ground to ground missiles.

It is also worth throwing into the equation the fact that China is mostly copying any existing military technology and doesn’t have much innovation coming out of their own R & D efforts. This factor by itself tells us that America will remain the world leader in military capability for the foreseeable future, thereby relegating China to a third or second position for many years ahead.

Third, China’s technological advancements do not in any way match those of the West in general and the US in particular. China is in no way a breeding ground for new ideas in any field of endeavor. This is a general Chinese shortcoming stemming from the existing militaristic type of educational system in the country, which involves an absence of training in critical thinking, which in turn ends up stifling most attempts at innovation. Technologically speaking, therefore, China doesn’t stand a chance of surpassing US innovative capabilities any time soon.

Fourth, regarding cultural values China doesn’t have much to offer to the world. China’s past may be attractive to some historians because of the complexity of its Dynastic systems and its revolutions, but when it comes to popular entertainment and the arts in general China doesn’t exert much attraction on the rest of the world. China’s culture, with its age-old baggage of socially restrictive traditions, may have similarities with some of the cultures of North and South East Asia, but not even those countries would be willing to modify their own cultural characteristics to emulate those of China.

Culturally speaking, therefore, China doesn’t stand much chance of becoming the envy of the world. Chinese soft power is practically nonexistent at this point in time and it’s not showing any signs that it will become the world’s focal point any time soon, if at all. And this I mention in full awareness of the efforts they are making through the Confucius Institutes they are increasingly disseminating across the world.

In a nutshell, and after briefly reviewing both America’s and China’s cases, is there any realistic hope or fear that China could one day replace the United States as the world’s hegemon and become the global dominant country of the 21st century? Given the bird-view analysis shown above, there are only very slim chances that such will ever be the case.

No one doubts that China will soon become the number one economy in the world, but economic power alone is not enough to become a world hegemon of the kind the US has been over the past many decades. The uniqueness of the US case resides in the combination of characteristics that drove it to the #1 position it still holds. But China is quite far from possessing those characteristics, thereby making it impossible for it to replace the US at the world's #1 spot.

The truth is that the world is somehow moving away from rigid structures of dominance, in spite of Russia’s recent attempts to go back in time to the dictatorships of the communist era and in spite of many of the existing theocracies’ efforts to cling to power in any which way they can.

It may well be that the United States will turn out being the first and only global hegemon of its kind in history, meaning that if ever America steps down from its dominant economic, military, technological and cultural heights, no other country will ever have what it takes to follow in its steps.

As far as China is concerned, and barring any catastrophic hecatomb of apocalyptic proportions befalling the west, it would take it a hundred years or more to muster the variety of capabilities required to ascend to world dominance of the kind America has exerted over the last century or so. If it ever does.

Salaroche