Who’s Afraid of Obama’s Wolf?
Jiayuguan, Gansu Province, China, March 2nd, 2014
Salaroche


Who’s afraid of Obama’s Wolf? Well, Bashar al-Assad certainly wasn’t, and he got away with it. Could the saying: “barking dog never bites” be equal to “howling wolf never bites”? Obama howled at Assad, but didn’t really bite him. “Don’t cross the red line”, Obama said, but Assad still used chemical weapons on his people, and months after Obama’s failed threat Assad still has chemical weapons stockpiled in his arsenals and keeps stalling their release.

A couple of days ago Russian military forces amassed along the Crimean border while some Russian commandoes entered the Crimean capital and Obama howled again, “there will be costs”, he said. Was Putin afraid of Obama’s Wolf? Yeah, right. The next day he openly declared he was sending troops right into Crimea, and he did.

In response, after a 90-minute phone conversation with Putin, Obama stated publicly that Russia had breached international law. Oh, really? How worried do you think Putin may be after hearing that admonition from Obama? Zilch. And what can Obama do to punish Putin anyway?

Sure, the West could (and probably will) freeze private and institutional Russian assets in European and American banks, put diplomatic relations on hold, threaten to kick Russia out of the G8, and other similar mostly-symbolic gestures, but Europe still depends on Russian gas for its survival. So, how long could the West hold such stance before Russia cuts the gas pipelines thereby forcing Europe to mellow down and cozy up to Russia again?

And the UN Security Council? Forget it. What can the UN do when Russia is a veto-wielding permanent member and China would very likely vote against any anti-Russia resolution?

So, who’s afraid of Obama’s wolf? Basically no one. Obama has a knack for looking weak. This may be because he is actually weak when facing antagonism from well-seasoned autocratic rivals such as Assad, Putin, and Xi. Those guys don’t share in the morals that the US and the EU thrive to uphold publicly as the standards of western civilization. Those guys believe in brutal force and intimidation as their policies of first and last choice.

And to those who applauded Obama’s decision not to punish Assad militarily I say, you don’t let your Wolf howl to that kind of guys unless your fangs are already poised to grab them by the throat. And you never fail to make good on your threats, lest you have everybody laugh at you whenever your Wolf howls again.

It has taken a bit long for me to admit that Obama may be too good a person to be a good US President. I like the guy and I voted for him. I even gave over US$200 to his campaign in 2008, which was the first time I ever did that, and perhaps the last as well. But to be an effective key player in world politics you have to be a lot more than just a good person. You also have to be cunning and, at times, even ruthless in your decisions.

Who, then, is Afraid of Obama’s Wolf? Well, maybe some minor bad guys are but, as of now, none of the big dogs Obama has howled at has shown any fear of his threats, regardless of how loud Obama’s wolf has howled.

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