When a State of Alarm Keeps Becoming the Normal Global State of Affairs.
Nha Trang, Vietnam, December 1st, 2024.
Salaroche

No. This Commentary is not about the mild state of alarm that keeps slowly and silently crawling up the nervous system of a considerable number of Americans, but it is directly related to that.

In America, at least half the population keeps growing apprehensive about the uncertain future that awaits them after January 20th, when Donald Trump will be sworn-in as the 47th President of the United States. The rest of the world is concerned about that too, but for a different, even-if-related reason.

The thing is that Trump admires Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Putin has been considered a clear and present danger to European security since he ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February of ‘22.

It is because of Putin’s threatening stance that Finland joined NATO in April of ’23 and it is for the same reason that Sweden also joined that Treaty in March of ’24. Finland has an 830-mile (1,340-Km) border with Russia, which makes it quite vulnerable to a Russian attack. That also makes the Finn’s reasons for joining NATO the rational, logical thing to do.

Sweden, for its part, had long ago abandoned all previous geopolitical alliances with any other country and had remained neutral since the end of the Napoleonic wars in November of 1815, which tells us that their decision to join NATO is not an off-the-cuff move, but a seriously-considered strategy in view of their obvious vulnerability to a Russian attack.

The Baltic States, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, have been members of NATO since March of ’04, but they’re still too close to Russia to feel totally safe, particularly Estonia and Latvia, which have a 294-Km (183-mile) and a 284-Km (176-mile) border with Russia respectively.

The fact that Viktor Orban, Hungary’s Prime Minister since 2010, is a Putin sympathizer and the fact that a pro-Russia political party currently in power in the country of Georgia has just stalled its talks to join the European Union (see here), make the Nordic countries even more apprehensive about Russia still. Will Georgia end up in an alliance with Putin?

Trump’s “second coming” is not good news for many countries. It even has the UK seriously mulling whether to join the EU again, not only because of the “universal tariff of 20%” Trump intends to impose on all imports from all countries, but also because if he were to pull the US out of NATO or if he even were to bail the US out of Article 5 (one for all, all for one) the sole reliable remaining pillar of the alliance would be the EU, and the UK would be much safer as member of that Union than on its own (see here).

This and other such European concerns may sound too distant for most Americans to pay attention to, but not so much for those of us who live overseas.

As expected, continental Europeans are taking these matters with increasing seriousness. Germany has already come up with, and distributed, an App that indicates users where in their city is the nearest Bunker in which to take shelter in case of an attack, and Sweden has just released to the general public a 32-page pamphlet called “In Case of Crisis or War”, that contains guidelines and instructions to follow in case of an emergency (see here).

That Swedish pamphlet is also printed in English and I have made it available to you by clicking here.

So, for the moment, we have North Korean troops ready to fight against Ukraine alongside Russian Troops, Viktor Orban playing the role of pro-Putin Trojan Horse inside the European Union, the country of Georgia hesitating whether to side with the EU or with Putin, and now we have the President-elect of the United States poised to solidify his relationship with the Russian dictator. Shouldn't this be reason enough to be at least a bit alarmed about it all?

As we speak, and for specific domestic reasons, a mild state of alarm keeps growing inside the United States. But not only there. To different degrees, it is also growing in different parts of the world, and particularly so in northern Europe.

So, when a state of alarm starts becoming the world’s normal state of affairs, what is the rational, logical thing that regular people like you and I ought to do?

Well, just to play it on the safe side, maybe we could all start drafting some alternative contingency plans for the future. No? Just in case. You never know. The way things are going, almost any bet could look just as good as any other.

Salaroche