What Else Did They Expect?
Jiayuguan, Gansu Province, China, November 27, 2013
Salaroche

On November 23rd China decided to impose air-travel restrictions over a zone of the East China Sea that includes the Senkaku islands, which are known as Diayou in China. That small archipelago is presently a point of friction between China and Japan, as they both claim sovereignty over it, although Taiwan stakes claims of ownership over it as well.

The Chinese now want all aircraft flying over the area to announce their flight plans to them in advance and to provide them with radio and logo identifications. South Korean and Taiwanese commercial airlines have agreed to comply with the new "rules" and some Japanese airlines had started doing so as well, but have just stopped complying at the Japanese government’s request.

On Tuesday the 26th the US sent a couple of unarmed B-52 bombers flying into the area on a round trip from Guam. The American pilots didn't provide any flight plans to the Chinese authorities, nor did they angage in any radio contact with them, thereby making it abundantly clear that the US Air force does not intend to submit to any such arbitrary and provocative move from the part of China. Nobody in their right mind should have expected anything less from the part of the US.

Let the Chinese take over the Senkaku islands with impunity and what are they going to do next? Declare the entire South China Sea part of their defense zone? Take over Taiwan as well? This is a red line the US cannot afford to let China cross. This is a bullying that needs to be grabbed by the horns right away. Failing to do so would be a totally irresponsible move from the part of the US.

And what are the “Communist” Party’s intentions in taking such inflammatory actions all of a sudden? Most likely to gain domestic nationalistic points with the population so that the reforms recently announced may be easier for the people to accept and for the government to implement.

But the problem here is the question of unintended consequences. A small miscalculation from the part of a low-rank Chinese commander at any Chinese ground to air missile site could bring a Japan Airlines or ANA jetliner down, and what do you think Japan would have to do then? Even worse still, given the existing US-Japan mutual defense treaty, what do you think the US would be forced to do? Whatever it is, from that point on there’s no way of telling what would happen next.

In the meantime, trade between China and the rest of the world would be halted to different degrees, transportation insurance in the area would skyrocket, and most of us American expatriates in China would be subject to harassment from the part of the locals.

In adopting such bullying stance China is playing with fire. They should know perfectly well that the US is not going to let them get away with anything they may obtain by force or intimidation. Obama may not be a president that inspires much respect across the world because of his dithering, most recently shown in his failure to punish Syria’s Assad for crossing the red line that Obama himself had traced. But Syria’s problems have never amounted to a national security issue of the caliber that a China-Japan military confrontation would.

From the point of view of many of us, this was an unfortunate miscalculation from the part of China and, as the situation presently stands, it appears to be backfiring. Australia has summoned China’s Ambassador to present him with its concerns about the new “defense zone”, South Korea is probably not very happy about it, neither is Taiwan, not to mention Japan. And the rest of the Pacific Rim nations are probably already thinking of strengthening alliances with the US military to prevent any possible future abuses from the part of China.

Yet, there are some people in the area and elsewhere who think the abuser in this situation is the US. For example, an editorial in the Asia Times even called the flight of the B-52 bombers a provocation from the part of the US. No doubt that anti-American ideological prejudice has a lot to do with such pronouncements, but wilful ignorance of China’s long-term imperial ambitions is patently obvious there too.

Nothing good has so far come out if this situation, it has only made China look arrogant and disconnected from certain very consequential political realities. In the meantime, the US has clearly reasserted its commitment to the US-Japan mutual defense treaty and China has been put on warning about it. What else did they expect?

Salaroche