The Big Kid on the Block Misbehaves
Jiayuguan, Gansu Province, China, November 29th, 2013.
Salaroche


Let’s say it clear, the China Seas are only so in name; they’re in no broad sense the Chinese government’s private turf. Continental China may well be under the near-total control of the “Communist” Party, but such is not the case outside its borders. There are other influential sovereign nations in that area that also have airspace and maritime rights to claim, namely South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Vietnam.

Around 20 countries in the world, including the United States, already have established Air Defense Identification Zones (ADIZ) of the kind China is trying to impose on the region. Under this lense, there would appear to be no reason why China shouldn’t have its own ADIZ as well. But the problem with China’s recent claims has two prongs that other ADIZ don't have, although both those prongs could be blended into one.

First, there’s the (typically) authoritarian way in which the Chinese government has gone about the whole issue. Accustomed to rule by edict at home, they thought they could “rule” over their immediate Pacific neighborhood in a similar way. But, oops! It turns out that Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea, and the United States are sovereign nations not beholden to the “Communist” Party’s whims.

That means that some consultation with their neighbors was in order before China taking the bold and arbitrary step of declaring an area almost the size of California as its ADIZ. In addition, there’s the question of China’s new ADIZ’s overlapping with those of Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea, which had already been in place and accepted by the international community for some time.

To put it in a simple manner, in arbitrarily declaring the scope and the rules for its ADIZ, China has literally stepped on its neighbors’ toes, and in so doing has stepped on those of the US as well, as the latter has a mutual defense treaty with Japan (what else did China expect?)

Second, there’s the question of the broad scope of China’s new demands. Other countries’ ADIZ require all aircraft flying within its perimeter to identify themselves to the local authorities ONLY if their flight plans include landing at, or going across, the country in question. China’s “edict” demands that ALL aircraft flying within their ADIZ boundaries log their flight plans in advance and identify themselves to the Chinese authorities REGARDLESS of their destination.

No doubt such move was a reckless miscalculation from the part of Beijing. Reckless because it appears to have failed to visualize the magnitude of the possible ramifications resulting from it, and miscalculation because it failed to anticipate its neighbors’ and the United States’ response to it. The US, Japan, and South Korea have already disregarded China’s edict, even as South Korean and Taiwanese commercial airlines are abiding by it.

Now there’s no easy way for China to get out of the hole it has dug itself into, but possible outcomes can presently be narrowed down to two: 1) Either China backtracks on its authoritarian demands, thereby losing face on the home front or, 2) It goes ahead with its threats and ends up creating a military conflict of the kind where nobody comes out the winner (the financial repercussions of such a conflict would be detrimental to the whole world economy)

As a rising superpower China is basically a newcomer on the world’s stage, but there is an existing status quo in the region that China has to come to terms with if it wants to make a peaceful entry into the scene. If China is dissatisfied with some of the existing realities that surround it, it should try addressing them playing by the rules that have brought the world to enjoy whatever level of stability it presently enjoys.

Barging into the Pacific region in an arbitrary and disrespectful manner will only backfire on China and will only make it more difficult for the rest of the world to accept it as a trustworthy world partner. Authoritarianism may still be working within China’s borders; but don’t try exerting any similar kind of authority over the rest of the world. It just won’t work.

Salaroche