Samurai Rising.
Yiwu, Zhejiang Province, China, July 23rd, 2013
Salaroche

The Chinese government is imperialist. There’s no doubt in my mind that, in the long run, its intentions are world domination. And the educated Chinese masses aren’t too far behind in their nationalistic ambitions. Just talk to University students across China and check out how they praise their authoritarian government, their statist strand of capitalism, and their economic miracle of the past few decades and you’ll see what I mean.

“Why should we need to learn English?” Some of my brightest students would ask me, “The whole world should be learning Chinese!” They would say. And they don’t make such statements with a predisposition to dialogue; they take such claims for granted, as a given, with a “no question about it” attitude. The more educated the majority of Chinese people are, the more they echo the official version of everything: China’s divine destiny to be the leader of the world.

But before they get to dominate the world they would first have to dominate the Pacific Rim neighborhood, namely Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Of the lot, Japan is the only one which, in my view, could eventually stand up all by itself against the growing political, military, and economic Tsunami that China is already unleashing on the region.

For the time being, the only factor deterring China from an outright military takeover of the Senkaku islands is the fact that the Chinese are perfectly aware of the defense treaty existing between the United States and Japan. You don’t mess militarily with Japan unless for starters you’re ready to deal with the US Navy and the widespread consequences, financial and otherwise, that such faceoff would entail.

The US has a sizable military presence in South Korea, keeps arming Taiwan, and keeps strengthening ties with Vietnam, while letting it be known it’s not going to let China walk all over the Philippines too easily. The US is China’s biggest deterrent for China’s future expansionist ambitions in the region, but that is a legacy strategic responsibility that could perhaps be eased away from US shoulders were there an allied military and economic power in the region that could on its own counterbalance China’s.

Japan is my first and only choice to fit into those shoes. After all, the Samurai was the world’s #2 economy for a few decades before falling down to the #3 position in 2012. In addition, and here’s where the double edge of the Samurai’s sword shows its teeth, Japan was the #1 industrial and military power in the region for close to fifty years during the last century.

The thinking of many influential Japanese is already floating down in the same direction as my present drift. None other than Shinzo Abe, for one, who is well known for his nationalistic impulses, is already pushing his country to embrace its regional responsibility vis a vis China.

But the Samurai would face an exacting obstacle in such quest: Its imperialist past. In fact, deeply ingrained in China’s present quarrel with Japan is the fact that the Samurai has never issued any official unequivocal apology, nor shown any evident signs of repentance, for the atrocities committed on China’s soil during the 1930s and 40s.

South Korea holds an equally justifiable grudge against the Samurai for similar reasons and the rest of the pacific rim neighborhood has never been happy to remember those imperialist years either. The Samurai standing up in every possible way to the Dragon, therefore, would represent a mixed bag of blessings and fears to the region. Blessings because it would balance against China’s impulse to dominate, and fears because of the Samurai’s imperialist past. What would a militarized Japan do? Revert to its 1930s imperialist arrogance?

Now that his party holds a majority in both chambers of Parliament, Abe could try to pass a constitutional amendment to Article 9 of the 1947 constitution. That’s the article that keeps Japan from developing aggressive military capabilities. Once, and if, that article is out of the way, the Samurai could easily start to counterbalance China’s developing Navy and Air Force, thereby containing China’s imperialist dreams.

Such constitutional amendment might lift a big financial and political burden from US shoulders and it might be a move worth contemplating from the American point of view, but how far would a nationalistic militarized Japan be willing to go is a question full of caveats. Reassurance from the part of the Samurai, therefore, would be an essential sine qua non for allowing it to happen, just as much as putting in place mechanisms to verify that compliance to agreements is enforced in every step of the way.

But Shinzo Abe isn’t showing any signs of regret for the Samurai’s past misbehaviors. Apparently, he would like to have it both ways: Eventually have the world accept Japan’s military maturity while not showing the world any regrets for Japan’s past military crimes and abuses. No such thing, Mr. Abe, to grant you the former the world would first need to witness atonement for the latter. And not just in words, but in reparations for your war crimes and the corresponding modifications to Japan’s history books as well.

In contrast, Germany doesn’t presently need to change its post-WWII stance rejecting any use of its military for purposes other than self defense, which is the German counterpart to Japan’s Article 9, but Germany isn’t facing any potential future threats of the kind Japan is facing with China. Germany keeps blooming as the EU’s #1 economy and doesn’t have any territorial quarrels with any rising world power, why make waves stoking nationalistic sentiments? On top of that, Germany has incessantly apologized to the world since the end of the war, act that redeems it in the eyes of its European neighbors to a degree that Japan is very far from enjoying in the pacific rim.

Why should it be so difficult for Japan to emulate Germany in that regard?

Abenomics are proving to be quite effective and the Japanese electorate just rewarded such economic policies by granting Abe a clear win in the recent elections. It remains to be seen whether Abe will guide the Samurai wisely in its quest to counterbalance the Dragon, or whether the Samurai will remain stubborn and historically blind to its own past mistakes, thereby making itself Uncle Sam’s eternal military protégé.

To be wise, in this case, would be to start with a sincere act of contrition before the world in general and before the pacific rim neighborhood in particular. Then they could figure out how to best trim the wings of the Dragon.

Salaroche