Change of Guard
Foshan, Guangdong Province, China, November 4, 2012
Salaroche

The winds of fate keep blowing and the changes they bring will come to pass either for the benefit or in spite of the needs that the peoples of the world may have. For better or worse, whether we like it or not, the political winds carrying the year 2012 toward its end may entail considerable changes in our lives.

In Democratic countries like the United States, the winds in question are impelled mostly by the will of the majorities, although some times luck and kinks in the system may also determine electoral outcomes.

In countries with non-democratic systems things are different. In China, for example, leaders are selected by a ruling elite whose decisions on the matter are arbitrary and irrevocable. Both countries, however, are set to determine their political and economic fates this month of November.

In America, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are sprinting neck to neck towards the finish line on November 6th. In China, Xi Jinping is set to be anointed as the next party leader during the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party starting on November 8th, which clearly means he will be the next president of his country.

If Mitt Romney were to be elected, the changes he would try to implement would affect millions of Americans, particularly those belonging to the middle classes whose destiny, according to what Mitt has repeatedly said or implied during his campaign, belongs in the whimsical hands of the American moneyed classes. If Barack wins, things will continue evolving at the slow pace we have witnessed over the past four years, but not much will change. The latter also means that congressional deadlock may also remain the same.

Xi Jinping, on the other hand, will face a rapidly changing national situation. His tenure may well prove as important as that of Deng Shaoping's back in the early 90's. China's economy has slowed down recently, but it's still growing at a pace that way surpasses that of any of the other major economies. Politically speaking, however, that's another story. Many of us don't see any other path for China than that of political reform. Without it this country might start walking backwards instead of ahead.

Much more transparency is needed here in this thriving country. Much more accountability on the part of the governing elites. Millions of Chinese are obviously much better off today than they were a couple of decades ago, but income inequality is beginning to show everywhere and dissent can no longer be quelled the way it could have been not too long ago.

In this commentaries section I have before briefly talked about a political time bomb that some of us hear ticking here and there in some restaurants and other places that we randomly go to. The hope that some of us have is that we're not the only ones exposed to such expressions of discontent, but that the Chinese leadership is exposed to it as well. The latter, combined with the enormous economic potential for growth that China still has in store, leads us to hope that Xi Jinping may go the way of Deng Shaoping and preside over the next wave of reforms that this country increasingly badly needs.

Whether Romney or Barack emerge victorious next Tuesday won't represent any deep structural changes in America. Whether Xi Jinping and the CCCP behind him heed the mounting call of the Chinese masses, on the other hand, may even prove vital for the future of this country. May Xi Jinping prove to be an enlightened leader.

May you all be well.

Salaroche