America: From Leader of the Free World to Global Menace?
Nha Trang, Vietnam, December 14th, 2024.
Salaroche

What may have been patently unthinkable just about a decade ago, may today be a possibility with high levels of probability. In an effort to correct one of the stupidest strategic blunders they have ever made, Brexit, the Brits are now trying to patch up their relationship with the EU, not because of any sudden change of heart about their insular instincts of late, bur for reasons of national security, both in the economic and military fields.

There’s probably nothing that entices neighboring countries to form alliances of convenience between them more than the serious threat that a powerful, hostile external force may pose to all of them, and that is the reason that both the UK and the EU are now looking for ways to palliate their differences (see here).

It has already been a century since the United States plays an essential role in the affairs of the world, mostly to uphold Democratic and human-rights ideals, though not always. But now a large sector of the American leadership seems to have grown tired of playing the role of benevolent guarantors of the world’s military and financial security, and a powerful, influential number among them now want some kind of payback for all the services rendered.

In essence, what that breed of Americans want is to get much more in return for military protection against Russia and China and much more in return for access to American markets. No more Mr. Niceguy. Uncle Sam is frowning to the world.

The UK has been uneasy about their national security since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February, 2022. All of Europe has. But the UK has often felt somewhat safe thinking that the US, the number one military superpower in the world, would always stand by their side in defense of their national security.

Such feeling of safety, however, seemed to evaporate on November 5th, when a NATO-skeptic, Putin-sympathizer, erratic, amoral, anti-Democracy individual was elected President of the United States.

To aggravate the situation, that same president-elect keeps threatening to slap a 20% tariff on all imports into the US, including those coming from the UK and EU. The US imports 21.7% of all UK exports and 19.7% of all EU exports. Both those economies, therefore, would be seriously affected if Trump’s tariff hike is implemented.

In Europe, the EU imports 42% of all UK exports and the UK imports 13% of all EU exports. This means that these two entities have a vested economic interest in strengthening their overall relationship, particularly if there were a trade war between each of them and the US.

Equally important is the fact that some EU nations, particularly France and Germany, have considerable, sizeable, armies and weaponry and that France is a nuclear power in its own right, just as the UK is. From the national-defense point of view, therefore, if ever the US decided to bail out of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty (one for all, all for one) the UK would be much safer contributing to strengthen the EU military umbrella than on its own.

It has been a century since the United States became “the indispensable nation” and the whole world should be thankful for all the good work America has done in ensuring the relative stability of the world, the Iraq/Afghanistan wars notwithstanding.

But now there seems to be a paradigm shift in the offing and if the newly-elected president decides to follow his dictatorial instincts and forms alliances of any sort with Putin, Orban, Kim, and the like, all Democratic countries in the world may end up left to fend for themselves against formidable, adversarial nuclear powers like Russia and China.

There is no neutral, “in between” position regarding these matters. Either you allow mad dictators to forcefully annex to their countries whatever foreign territories they wish, or you don’t. And, if you do, there is no believable way to claim you are not on the dictators’ side.

Will America go from being the leader of the free world to being a global menace? Only time will tell. But the odds that it does keep growing as we approach inauguration day.

Salaroche